Montana Senate Showdown Will Be Decided in These Counties

If Republican Tim Sheehy hopes to claim victory in today's race for the U.S. Senate, he'll need to do something other GOP hopefuls haven't done, namely shut down incumbent Jon Tester in several key counties.

That's a more critical point to track than whether either candidate is claiming victory in most Montana counties as the votes are counted. In both 2012, and 2018, Tester beat his conservative rivals by losing a majority of Montana's 56 counties, but using pockets of support to come out the winner. And that's not any reason to believe that Sheehy's hopes rest on more than reversing that trend by weakening the core of Tester's support in key areas.

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Tester traditionally trails in the "county count"

Watching both of the previous races for the Senate seat was a classic case of reporting on a comeback as the votes were tallied.

In 2012, Tester beat Denny Rehberg 49% to 45%, even though the GOP veteran won in 41 counties, some by 60 to 70%. Tester won by capturing a handful of smaller counties, but really pulled away with the votes he secured in Cascade, Deer Lodge, Gallatin, Glacier, Hill, Lake, Lewis & Clark, Silver Bow, and obviously Missoula counties.

How Did Jon Tester win in 2018?

In 2018, Tester downed Matt Rosendale by fewer than 20,000 votes. That margin of victory once more came from Great Falls, Bozeman, Glacier, Lake, and Deer Lodge counties, Helena, Missoula, Butte, and Park counties, as well as a few of the smaller counties.

A point to watch with tonight's results is whether any of those areas continue to favor Tester or Sheehy. On the flip side, Sheehy needs to preserve the edge in the counties Republicans won in the last two Senate contests and can't afford to lose any of the GOP cushions.