Goodbye Fall, Hello Montana Winter

It won't be "snow shovel weather" across Montana this weekend, and certainly not like the storm that hit parts of the state two weeks ago.

The National Weather Service says temperatures as much as 20 degrees colder than the start of the week are on track to arrive Friday. And it looks like 70-degree, and even 60-degree days are probably done for the year, with a trend to colder, somewhat wetter weather along with high-country snow.

While many mountain areas could see an inch or more of snow, NWS says the main snow impact will be on the Northern Divide, where a few inches of snow could fall above 6,000 feet.

Pretty typical for the end of October

A few locations like Great Falls had topped 70 degrees by Wednesday afternoon. Billings could actually hit 76 on Thursday. Colder air trapped in the valleys was keeping Western Montana from getting much above the low 60s, although the forecast was still 70 for Missoula on Thursday.

However, an incoming system will bring rain to areas west of the Divide Thursday evening, spreading east on Friday, with highs dropping to the upper 40s and lows in the 50s. Snow levels will fall to 5,000 to 6,000 feet, and that might lead to some slick driving in the higher passes.

Don't blame El Niño, yet

While the El Niño current is creating robust moisture for California, the Southwest, and parts of the Great Basin, NOAA's long-range winter weather outlook is still saying the strengthening pattern will likely result in a milder, drier winter for Montana and the Northern Rockies.

The federal forecasters say the shifting jet stream is still expected to tilt the odds toward warmer-than-average temperatures for December through February. Regular winter storms will still happen, driven by the usual combination of storms from the Gulf of Alaska and Canada, but we might see fewer extended deep freezes.

That may also create issues for snowpack and water supply if the precipitation trends drier.

NOAA graphic

RELATED: Outlook Isn't Good News for Montana

Watch those tropical storms

However, the last couple of storms have also shown that some of the El Niño-generated storms can still have enough strength to impact the Rockies.

The heavy snows that hit Central Montana 2 weeks ago were driven by the remnants of Tropical Storm Rachael, which combined with cold air out of Canada.