July 4 Gas Prices Projected to Be Second Highest Ever Recorded

Missoula, MT (KGVO-AM News) - GasBuddy has released its 2026 Independence Day gas price forecast, projecting the national average price of gas will fall to approximately $3.75 per gallon on July 4, which would be the second most expensive Independence Day on record behind the all-time high of $4.80 in 2022.

Patrick De Haan is the head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, and he said the projection comes despite six consecutive weeks of national average declines following a spring spike driven by the Strait of Hormuz closure.  

“The recent U.S.-Iran framework agreement has helped ease supply fears and pull prices lower, but the accord remains fragile, and risks to the upside are significant,” De Haan said. “However, with the U.S. Department of Treasury authorizing the sale of oil by Iran, oil prices recently fell below $70/bbl, which may help consumers see lower prices faster, with global inventories benefiting from the additional oil.”

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Six weeks of declines sounds like good news, and in some ways it is, but De Haan said the context matters. 

"At roughly $3.75, this would be the second most expensive July 4 ever recorded, roughly 65 cents higher than last year and nearly $1 above where prices started in 2026. The U.S.-Iran agreement gives markets hope, but it's being tested, and any breakdown in those talks could reverse the recent relief quickly,” De Haan said. “Drivers should use every tool available to find the lowest prices near them before filling up.” 

July 4 gas prices over the last 5 years:

2021: $3.12/gal
2022: $4.80/gal (record high)
2023: $3.46/gal
2024: $3.49/gal
2025: $3.10/gal
2026: ~$3.75/gal (projected)

While the projected $3.75 per gallon average represents a dramatic improvement from May's peak of $4.57, it still marks roughly a 65-cent increase from last July 4's $3.10 per gallon average, and a stark reminder of how significantly the Strait of Hormuz closure reshaped the price environment for 2026.  

READ MORE: Montana Gas Prices Drop For Fifth Week: What To Expect Next

De Haan said Americans will spend hundreds of millions more on gasoline this July 4 holiday weekend compared to last year. Only 2022's record spike, driven by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and pandemic-era demand surges, has produced a more expensive Independence Day at the pump.