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Will the Healthcare Ruling Swing the Election?

James Carville
Photo courtesy of jdlasica
The Supreme Court is currently hearing arguments on the healthcare act. Many commentators think the Supreme court decision on this issue will be the most political since Bush v. Gore, others are calling it the “trial of the century.” Because this is an election year, there is a good chance that the Supreme Court’s decision will be the deciding factor in what will likely be a close vote. Here are three big possibilities.

1. Overturn is good For Republicans. This is, I think, the most common assumption for those on the right. Many feel that a loss at the Supreme Court will make both the healthcare law and it’s backers look foolish. But will a legal win translate into a political win or will it simply fire-up the base on the left?

2. Overturn is good for Democrats. Here are Jame’s Carville’s thoughts on the matter.

3. The Supreme Court’s Decision will have little to no political impact. This is the argument put forward by Jonathan Bernstein in his article surprisingly titledĀ  “Why the Obamacare Verdict Won’t Have Any Effect on the 2012 Election.” In short, the argument here is simply that big social events in the U.S. don’t have enough political momentum to carry on till election day.

Who’s right? We want to know what you think.

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