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Will Paul Ryan’s Nomination Lead to a Democratic House of Representatives?

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If asked what the three major issues of this campaign are, nearly every politician in America will say jobs, jobs, jobs. Nancy Pelosi sees things differently. In her most recent press briefing, Pelosi claims that the “three most important issues in the campaign in alphabetical order are medicare, medicare, medicare.” The issue of medicare is about as hot-button an issue as one can find in the United States and Paul Ryan has done a good job of putting this issue out front for attack, but will his risky gambit help Democrats take back the house?

Paul Ryan and Mitt Romney have created a very interesting election year choice. Because Paul Ryan has an extensive plan (a.k.a. the Ryan Budget) he also opens himself up to specific attacks on his policies. The funny thing, though, is that this year’s election scenario is all backwards. The President is supposed to have a plan that is open for attack, but Obama’s budget isn’t even on the chopping block. Republicans and Democrats alike (yes, every single one of them) decided not to vote for the Obama budget.

Common sense says that it is easier to attack a plan than to create a plan. Entitlement issues and an amorphous position have served the current administration well and will most likely swing at least a few seats in the house. Still, using Medicare to swing more than 25 seats in the House of Representatives (which is what democrats would have to do to gain control of the house) seems like a long shot to me. Most senators are safe, and both teams in this election have radical changes in mind for medicare. I suppose there is a slight chance that medicare could be the issue of the day, but I would lay odds that most folks vote for whoever they think will best improve the economy.

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