Why Obama is Likely to Win
A lot of voters are of the false belief that President Obama has a slim chance of winning in the coming election. I think this feeling is driven by the steady divide in the electorate (now nearly 50/50) between those that approve and disapprove of the President’s policies.
When the approval score is essentially tied, other important factors need to be considered when judging the state of the race. First, look at the great distance in spending power between Obama and his nearest financial competitor Mitt Romney. Obama and the DNC have raised 240 Million dollars so far, compared to a quickly dwindling 24 million between Romney and his super PAC.
Money isn’t the only bellwether for the election, one also has to look at the type of election at stake. In this case, the country is looking at a re-election contest. Only 12 presidents (of our 44) have ever lost re-election and only 3 after World War II. Being in power gives the President many more platforms to speak his message than his rival will receive. Also, because a sitting President is in power, there is no question of whether or not he has “presidential” qualities. He also has the huge advantage of not having to trod through a punishing primary process.
Finally, the biggest reason Obama has an advantage in this election cycle is that his opponents are fighting over the wrong issues. While Romney and Santorum saw back and forth over the social issues, they may cement or isolate members of their own base, but they do nothing to change the minds of Obama supporters. A winning strategy involves pulling new supporters, not splitting your own base. Take a look at the Hispanic vote for instance. Time magazine recently ran an issue titled “Yo Decido: Why Latino’s Will Pick the Next President” this particularly strong and growing segment of the U.S. voted 67 to 31 percent in the Obama vs. McCain contest. Hispanics are still leading towards Obama at 51% approval but their support is fading. If Republican’s want to win this election they will have to focus their message on those who could change their mind.